On the Democratic side, we now can find polls putting Obama ahead of Hillary in Iowa, and tied in the RealClearPolitics average…
…ahead of Hillary in New Hampshire (and tied in USA Today/Gallup)…
… ahead of Hillary in South Carolina (and tied in Rasumussen).
(Keep in mind, Obama’s not playing in Michigan; only Hillary and Gravel are. Also, for some reason, nobody’s polling in Nevada, which is before the Palmetto State.)
Does this make him the real frontrunner? It seems likely that just as the Iowa win suddenly launched Kerry everywhere, an Iowa win would create a cascade effect giving him momentum and wins in subsequent states.
But then again, what constitutes a win? Yesterday on Meet the Press they discussed what happens if it’s 32-31-30 among the big three, severely diluting the value of first place and making third place a lot more respectable (particularly for Hillary)…