KA-POW! The conventional wisdom of Obama’s great advantage in 2012 takes another tough blow:
Forty-four percent of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for “the Republican Party’s candidate” and 39% for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, according to Gallup’s June update. The current five-percentage-point edge for the generic Republican is not a statistically significant lead, and neither side has held a meaningful lead at any point thus far in 2011.
Could this change? Yes, it probably will. Should Republicans feel confident? No, they still have a long, difficult effort ahead. But he is, indeed, quite beatable, and it’s not clear that he or anyone around him recognizes how vulnerable he is. Perhaps they think that the robust economic recovery that they expected in 2009 and 2010 and 2011 is certain to arrive next year.
Also note this poll is of registered voters, not likely voters.