The Campaign Spot

GOP Challenger Kinzinger 51, Democrat Incumbent Halvorson 40

If you’re a House GOP challenger who isn’t beating a Democrat incumbent by double digits, you must feel like an underachiever these days. The latest in Illinois:

A new internal poll shows Republican congressional challenger Adam Kinzinger leading freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Halvorson by 11 percentage points, Kinzinger’s campaign said Monday.

The poll of 400 likely voters in the south suburban 11th Congressional District found Kinzinger leading Halvorson 51 percent to 40 percent.

While the poll said Kinzinger is now known by 60 percent of the respondents, the number who had a favorable impression of him — 27 percent — and those that have an unfavorable impression — 4 percent — only add up to 31 percent.

Of course, the Sun-Times gives a good reason for caution:

The polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies, found Halvorson’s last Republican opponent, Marty Ozinga, within 2 percentage points of her just before election day. She won that race 58 percent to 35 percent.

UPDATE: Never trust the Chicago Sun-Times. Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies writes in:

The Sun-Times has apologized and is correcting that item.  There was NEVER a poll that we did that showed the race just two points in 2008. 

Our final poll was done October 12-13 and showed Ozinga down double digits.  It was not released, and after that poll, he essentially stopped spending money. 

Most Popular


Fire Brenda Snipes

Brenda Snipes, the supervisor of elections in Florida’s Broward County, does not deserve to be within a thousand miles of any election office anywhere in these United States. She should be fired at the earliest possible opportunity. Snipes has held her position since 2003, in which year her predecessor, ... Read More
PC Culture

The Lonely Mob

Just before the election, an Andrew Gillum intern named Shelby Shoup was arrested and charged with battery after assaulting some college Republicans on the campus of Florida State University. It was rather less exciting than that sounds: She went on a rant about “Nazis” and “fascism” — Gillum’s ... Read More

How Immigration Changes Britain

Almost nothing is discussed as badly in America or Europe as the subject of immigration. And one reason is that it remains almost impossible to have any sensible or rational public discussion of its consequences. Or rather it is eminently possible to have a discussion about the upsides (“diversity,” talent, ... Read More

Sorry, Brian Kemp Still Won

Here was the state of play as of yesterday per the Kemp campaign’s breakdown of publicly available information: As of Saturday, November 10, 2018 (12:00 p.m.) *Information below is public.  Total votes reported: 3,924,658 Kemp: 1,975,162 (50.33%) Abrams: 1,912,383 (48.73%) Metz: ... Read More