From the midweek edition of the Morning Jolt:
Hagan and Landrieu Are in Trouble . . . But Pryor’s Okay? Really?
This morning the New York Times drops a poll showing most southern Democratic senators up for reelection this year in trouble, with one striking exception:
Senator Mark Pryor of Arkansas, a two-term incumbent who has been considered perhaps the most imperiled Democratic senator in the country, holds a 10-point lead over his Republican opponent, Representative Tom Cotton.
Kind of out of whack compared to other polling so far this year, showing a neck-and-neck race. Democrats will undoubtedly begin the victory party, but we’ll see if the Times’s sample is just an outlier, showing them what they want to see.
Elsewhere the Times poll finds:
Senator Kay Hagan, Democrat of North Carolina, appears more endangered as she seeks a second term. She has the support of 42 percent of voters, and Thom Tillis, the Republican state House speaker and front-runner for his party’s nomination, is at 40 percent.
In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, is also effectively tied with his Democratic rival, Alison Lundergan Grimes, a race that may be close because Mr. McConnell, first elected to the Senate in 1984, has the approval of only 40 percent of voters, while 52 percent disapprove. But Ms. Grimes must overcome Mr. Obama’s deep unpopularity in the state, where only 32 percent of voters approve of his performance.
For what it’s worth, you don’t see Republicans as worried about McConnell as they were late last year.
With 42 percent support, Senator Mary Landrieu, Democrat of Louisiana, has an early lead in a race that is not fully formed against a large field of Republicans. Representative Bill Cassidy, the Republican front-runner, was the choice of 18 percent, and 20 percent had no opinion. There are two other Republicans in the race, but Louisiana has no primary. So all candidates of both parties will be on the ballot in November and, absent one of them taking 50 percent, there will be a runoff in December.
So the more important number is Landrieu’s 42 percent, nowhere near enough to avoid a runoff at this point and a decent opportunity for Cassidy to put together a majority in the runoff.