The Campaign Spot

Halperin: Raise the Ceiling on the House projections

On August 25, I offered an update on my assessment of the 105 vulnerable House Democrats and Democrat-held open seats, and the 5 or so vulnerable House Republicans and GOP-held open seats. I put 13 in the “GOP should win” category, 28 in the “GOP has good chance of winning” category, 36 in the “50/50″ category, 22 in the “GOP could win with luck or a wave” category, and 6 in the “GOP will need luck and a wave” category. Some readers figured this added up to a predicted gain of 50-60 seats, and that’s a fair description, although I note that with 60some days remaining, circumstances can change.

Mark Halperin, this morning, via Politico: “Mark Halperin e-mails elaboration on a “Morning Joe” prediction: “Based on the current national environment, the enthusiasm gap, the state of the economy, the failure to materialize of a lot of what Democrats were counting on (health care law getting more popular, and ‘recovery summer’ taking hold), and polling in individual races, on the current trajectory, with no unexpected intervening events, Republicans are in a position to pick up as many as 60 seats.” Swing needed for control: 39 seats. GOP netted 54 seats in ‘94.”

Everybody catches up eventually. Although I think as an absolute ceiling, 60 seats is too low.


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