The Campaign Spot

Here Comes the Wave: Raul Grijalva, Arizona Democrat, in Trouble

This is the kind of year where any rumor of unimaginably good news for the GOP is really hard to dismiss, no matter how unlikely it seems.

The Tucson Tea Party calls to my attention this video of a local political guru Chris Herstam, on the Sunday Square Off program on KPNX Channel 12 in Phoenix, declaring that little-known Republican Ruth McClung is dead even against Rep. Raul Grijalva, a Democrat who so vehemently opposes his own state’s law against illegal immigration that he has called for other states to boycott Arizona.

This is a D+6 district, where Grijalva has won 63 percent (2008), 61 percent (2006), 62 percent (2004) and 59 percent (2002). The district is 54 percent Hispanic, 34.3 percent white, 5 percent Native American, 3 percent African-American.

Herstam says he has heard this assessment from operatives on both sides of the race:

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