The Campaign Spot

Here’s the Score.

Here’s what we know* . . .

Last time, the health-care bill passed the House by a vote of 220 to 215. Since then, Robert Wexler of Florida and Neil Abercombie of Hawaii have resigned, and John Murtha has passed away. All of them were “yes” votes, and none of their replacements have been elected yet, so that moves the numbers to 217 to 215.

Rep. Joseph Cao of Louisiana, the lone Republican to vote for it last time, has indicated that he’s not doing that again, and that he’ll oppose the bill. This moves the vote to 216 for, 216 against.

A few days ago Nathan Deal, Republican of Georgia, announced he’s resigning; when he does, that will move the vote to 216 to 215. But now there’s word he’ll stick around until the health-care vote is finished; this moves it back to 216 to 216.

That’s the score based on what we know for certain; however, there’s a lot that seems quite likely.

There are quite a few Democrats who seem certain, or near-certain, to vote no without the Stupak language. Among then, Bart Stupak of Michigan, Dennis Cardoza of California, and Jim Oberstar of Minnesota.

Other Democrats have made comments that they’re not satisfied enough with the current legislation to vote for it, including Shelley Berkley of Nevada, Kurt Schrader of Oregon, Raúl Grijalva of Arizona, and Michael Arcuri of New York. Then again, they might just have brothers who would like to be federal judges.

Meanwhile, none of the nine Democrats who were mentioned as potential members of Pelosi’s Suicide Squad have indicated they’re willing to switch from “no” to “yes.” Three have indicated, either publicly, to other members, or to constituents, they’ll be voting “no” again: Frank Kratovil of Maryland, Michael McMahon of New York, and John Tanner of Tennessee.

In short, at this moment, if every wavering Democrat votes yes, and all of the pro-life Democrats vote yes, the bill passes. If any one of them flips, and none of the previous “no” votes flip, it’s game over, the bill can’t pass the House.

* Dang it. I missed one. Ignore the previous numbers that apparently included one extra Democrat.