The Campaign Spot

How Low Can Virginia’s Turnout Go?

Virginia voters, I’m interested in what you’re seeing and hearing in terms of turnout. I just mentioned to a neighbor that it’s primary day. As I noted earlier, northern Virginia saw thunderstorms this morning although it’s cleared up now. Via Twitter, we’re hearing 48 votes in three hours, 23 in three hours, pretty low, as expected.

Will turnout really be below 5 percent?

UPDATE: The cost-per-vote figures for this primary should be pretty astounding. As of May 27, McAuliffe spent $5.8 million, Moran spent $3.1 million, and Deeds spent $2.3 million. Turnout is expected to be between 200,000 and 300,000.

Presume, for the sake of argument, that the turnout is 300,000 and that it splits a third each way. That would put McAuliffe at spending $58 per vote, Moran $31 per vote, and Deeds $23 per vote. Of course, since it’s likely that turnout will be lower than 300,000, and that two of these guys won’t hit 33 percent, the cost-per-vote will be even higher.


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