The Campaign Spot

I Think Hillary’s Huge National Lead Is Starting To Affect Iowa

Let me offer a theory as to why Hillary’s doing better in Iowa.

Looking at polls of Iowa in August, we see Edwards up 8 in Hart Research, Hillary up 5 in University of Iowa, Hillary up 7 in Zogby, Edwards up 1 in Strategic Vision, Edwards up 5 in Time, Hillary up 5 in ARG.
Lately, the Des Moines Register has Hillary up 6, ARG has Hillary up 6, Newsweek has Obama up 4, Strategic Vision has Hillary Up 2, L.A. Times/Bloomberg has Hillary up 5.
We’ve gone from Edwards and Hillary splitting the lead to just about everybody except Newsweek showing Hillary up.
Now what happened between August and early October? Look at Hillary’s margin in national polls taken in September: 14 percent in ABC/washington Post, 21 in Rasmussen, 21 in USA Today/Gallup, 18 in New York Times/CBS News, 23 in CNN, 21 in NBC/Wall Street Journal, 18 in ARG, 20 in AP-Ipsos, 19 in Fox News, 13 in Cook/RT Strategies, 17 in Pew Research, 14 in Reuters/Zogby, 22 in Gallup, 21 in CBS News, 12 in Rasmussen, 14 in AP-Ipsos, and closing out the month with a whopping 33 points in ABC News/Washington Post.
A solid month of reporting that Hillary is running away with it nationally will, my guess, shake loose any wavering Obama or Edwards supporters in Iowa and prompt them to sign on with the likely winner.

Most Popular

PC Culture

Warren Is a Fraud

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) has been telling a story for years. It’s a deeply romantic story about her parents and their young love, fraught with the familial bigotry of an earlier time. Here’s how she told it this week in a video she released in preparation for her 2020 run: My daddy always said he ... Read More

How Will the Senate Races Break?

How will the Senate races break? We have less public polling to go on than in recent years, so answering that question is harder than ever. But the news is more optimistic for Republicans than it was a month ago.   Waves and Breakers Four years ago, I projected in mid September that if “historical ... Read More
Politics & Policy

The Origins of Progressive Agony

What has transformed the Democratic party into an anguished progressive movement that incorporates the tactics of the street, embraces maenadism, reverts to Sixties carnival barking, and is radicalized by a new young socialist movement? Even party chairman Tom Perez concedes that there are “no moderate ... Read More

Two Minnesota Republican Candidates Assaulted

Two Republican candidates for state office in Minnesota have been physically assaulted in recent days, leading prominent Republican lawmakers to caution their Democratic colleagues against employing inflammatory rhetoric. Republican state representative Sarah Anderson was punched in the arm last week after ... Read More
Law & the Courts

A Christian Man Receives Justice

A good man’s legal ordeal is at an end. Yesterday, my friends and former colleagues at the Alliance Defending Freedom announced that former Atlanta fire chief Kelvin Cochran had reached a $1.2 million settlement, ending a case he brought after the city fired him for writing -- and distributing to a select few ... Read More