The Campaign Spot

I Think Hillary’s Huge National Lead Is Starting To Affect Iowa

Let me offer a theory as to why Hillary’s doing better in Iowa.

Looking at polls of Iowa in August, we see Edwards up 8 in Hart Research, Hillary up 5 in University of Iowa, Hillary up 7 in Zogby, Edwards up 1 in Strategic Vision, Edwards up 5 in Time, Hillary up 5 in ARG.
Lately, the Des Moines Register has Hillary up 6, ARG has Hillary up 6, Newsweek has Obama up 4, Strategic Vision has Hillary Up 2, L.A. Times/Bloomberg has Hillary up 5.
We’ve gone from Edwards and Hillary splitting the lead to just about everybody except Newsweek showing Hillary up.
Now what happened between August and early October? Look at Hillary’s margin in national polls taken in September: 14 percent in ABC/washington Post, 21 in Rasmussen, 21 in USA Today/Gallup, 18 in New York Times/CBS News, 23 in CNN, 21 in NBC/Wall Street Journal, 18 in ARG, 20 in AP-Ipsos, 19 in Fox News, 13 in Cook/RT Strategies, 17 in Pew Research, 14 in Reuters/Zogby, 22 in Gallup, 21 in CBS News, 12 in Rasmussen, 14 in AP-Ipsos, and closing out the month with a whopping 33 points in ABC News/Washington Post.
A solid month of reporting that Hillary is running away with it nationally will, my guess, shake loose any wavering Obama or Edwards supporters in Iowa and prompt them to sign on with the likely winner.

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