On the generic ballot question, Gallup finds likely voters prefer “the Republican candidate” to “the Democratic candidate” 50 percent to 45 percent.
If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
As Gallup’s long-term “generic ballot” trend shows, the Democrats held a sizable lead on this measure from the time they won back control of Congress in the fall of 2006 through last month. If the current closer positioning of the parties holds, the structure of congressional preferences will be similar to most of the period from 1994 through 2005, when Republicans won and maintained control of Congress.
I’d like to see another poll find similar numbers, to ensure this isn’t just a weird sample, but if so… Wow!