The Campaign Spot

I’m Pretty Sure One of These Michigan Polls Is Way Off

Depending on which pollster you listen to, Obama either leads in Michigan by 10 percent or he’s tied with McCain.

I note that the EPIC-MRA poll, which has Obama up 10, is a sample of 406 “people.” (This would be a gain of 9 points for Obama in a week from the past poll by this group.)
Which is interesting, because it would appear we’re not talking about likely voters, or even registered voters, or even adults. Just whoever answered the phone. I suppose we should be thankful that they filtered out pets. (“Four percent of respondents answered, ‘Woof.’”)
Mark Halperin gives us the results of the NBC News poll in the minimalist format of Ernest Hemingway: “NBC News Michigan numbers: Obama 46, McCain 46 Dates conducted: 18-23. Error margin: 4 points.”
“The state was tied and that was all. Then we went to the bar and has some wine.”
The guys at RCP are my favorite poll-watchers, but they include both in their rolling average of the state. If  you decide the EPIC-MRA numbers are garbage, and you throw them out, Obama’s lead in the state drops from 4.5 percent to 3.25 percent.

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