The Campaign Spot

Indiana, The State That Refused To Be Called

Indiana… 82 percent of precincts of reporting, Hillary leads by four percent margin, a little over 40,000 votes ahead. Are the networks worried about Gary, Indiana, finding a huge pile of votes for Obama that puts him over the top?

I’m watching Lanny Davis argue on CNN that Barack Obama single-handedly prevented a re-vote in Michigan and Florida. The man raises shameless, audacious spin to a whole new level. “We did not allow Barack Obama to win Indiana tonight.”
Brazile echoes my point of earlier today — the May 1 31 DNC meeting on the rules will address Michigan and Florida, and that meeting is going to be a huge, huge fight.
10:40 Eastern: Hillary begins her speech. She’s not the same woman of two nights ago. Going through the motions, it seems. Bill Clinton looks like he’s gotten a lot of sun in the past couple days.
There’s a guy behind her with the big red boxing gloves, but with results like this, the “fighter” theme doesn’t work as well. She swung and missed tonight in North Carolina (a 14 point margin looks better than earlier in the night, but it’s still pretty bad) and landed only a glancing blow in Indiana. She underperformed the polls in both states. Tough night for her.
UPDATE: Oddity of the night: In North Carolina, 19,876 (so far) voted “no preference” in the Democratic primary. That’s about 1 percent.
ANOTHER UPDATE: What really crushes Hillary Clinton tonight? Obama’s lead in North Carolina is currently about 212,000 votes. That’s a huge margin to add onto his current popular vote margin; she’s leading Indiana by about 41,000 votes, so if current margins continue, his margin should grow about 171,000 votes. RCP puts his overall popular vote lead at 633,000 votes, without Michigan and Florida. With Michigan and Florida, it was about 10,000 out of 32 million.
She’ll get a big margin out of West Virginia and Kentucky; he’ll make up some ground in Oregon. That leaves Puerto Rico, South Dakota, Montana…
YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Evil genius Karl Rove does the back of the envelope calculation, and says that Obama would have to carry Lake County by a 70-30 margin to win the state, which he doesn’t think will happen. He does, however, think the vote gets even closer, and so the delegates split evenly or almost perfectly evenly.
That’s close enough to a win for Obama. Starting tomorrow morning, the cries for Hillary to quit the race from frustrated Democrats and Obama fans in the media (redundant, I know) are going to be deafening.

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