The Campaign Spot

It’s Not Quite a Rerun of 2004, But We May Not Be That Far Off

A person who contrasted the exit poll data with what we know from the results we have in Indiana and some other states concludes that the Democratic bias in the exit polls seems to have declined slightly from 2004, from eight points to roughly five.

Looking at that first batch of exit polls, shifting 5 percent from the Obama pile to the McCain pile gives us…

Obama: IA, MI, NH, NM, PA (52-48) WI

McCain: GA, FL, IN, MO, NC, OH, WV

Tie: NV, VA.

If this is the case, we are in for a long and exciting night. Having said that, we don’t know for certain that the 5 percent skew is even across the board.

Having said that, ABC News is calling Pennsylvania for Obama, the moment the polls close. Gotta wonder if they’ve gotten exit polls from central Pennsylvania yet.

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