The Campaign Spot

Latest PPP Poll Spells Toomsday for Sestak

I’ve given Public Policy Polling some grief about their polls, contending that because they don’t weight for party, many of their polls this year have presumed a throughly unrealistic level of turnout among Democrats.

Well, give them a bit of credit; they have now shifted from polling “registered voters” to “likely voters.” And the results are dramatic:

In PPP’s previous survey of the Pennsylvania Senate race in June, Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak were dead even at 41% among occasional voters. In the first survey using its likely-voter model, however, PPP now finds Toomey jumping out to a 9-point lead, 45-36, with 20% still undecided.

Their release spends a paragraph trying to explain that they think their sample was too conservative.

Also noteworthy: President Obama’s approval/disapproval splits at 40/55 among likely voters in Pennsylvania.

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