The Campaign Spot

Looking Closer at Hillary’s Head-to-Head Numbers

Captain Ed and I will be discussing the ceiling of Hillary Clinton’s support on BlogTalkRadio at 3:30 p.m. Eastern this afternoon.

Look at her head-to-heads against Thompson, Giuliani, McCain and Romney, you notice she can go above 50 percent…  among adults. Once you narrow to likely voters, the margin shrinks.
For example, ABC News/Washington Post poll of Sept. 27-30 put Hillary up 51-43 against Giuliani… but it’s among 1114 adults. Among likely voters since then, she’s been up 3, up 7, and down 2.
Head to head against Thompson, she leads 55 to 42 in a CNN poll from Sept. 7-9… in a poll of 1017 adults.
(By the way, I really like Rasmussen and am inclined to trust his numbers, but he’s got some wild swings in short periods of time. A poll of 800 likely voters on October 8-9 puts Hillary up over Thompson, 52 percent to 37 percent. Same sample size on Oct. 22-23 has Hillary up 47 percent to 45 percent.)

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