The Campaign Spot

Louisiana’s Early Vote Looks Particularly Ominous for Mary Landrieu

From the first Morning Jolt of the week:

Louisiana’s Early Vote Looks Particularly Ominous for Mary Landrieu

This coming Saturday, Louisianans close the book on the 2014 Senate races with their run-off election between incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu and Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy.

This morning Freedom Partners Action Fund launches a new ad, a portion of the original $2.1 million in ad time the group reserved early. The ad features two Louisiana residents, John Humphreys and Diana Lennon:

John Humphreys: You know, there’s lots of reasons Senator Mary Landrieu hasn’t earned six more years.

Diana Lennon: She’s been in Washington so long she calls it home.

Humphreys: Washington’s war on oil and gas, Obamacare and wasteful spending…

Lennon: She’s part of the problem.

Humphreys: This may be the most important vote that you ever make for Louisiana and the country.

Lennon: A vote for Mary Landrieu is a vote for President Obama and has failed liberal policies.

Humphreys: Let’s put Louisiana first.

Lennon: Vote Bill Cassidy.

Announcer: Freedom Partners Action Fund is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Elsewhere, Conservative War Chest’s commercial, hitting President Obama for treating the results of the midterm elections as if they don’t count, posted Friday, has more than 130,000 views on YouTube.

The early vote is looking pretty brutal for Landrieu:

The number of people who cast their ballots early in Louisiana dropped off from the Nov. 4 primary election to the Dec. 6 runoff election in every statewide category except one: registered Republican voters. 

About 85,900 registered Republicans took advantage of early voting for the Dec. 6 runoff, which was held during the week leading up Thanksgiving, as well as Saturday. That’s almost 3,000 more than the number of people who voted early for the Nov. 4 election, and it amounts to a 4 percent bump in early voting overall from a month ago. 

The jump in early Republican voters is noteworthy, given that early voting overall dropped by 10 percent from the November primary to the December runoff. The number of registered Democrats who voted early fell even further — about an 18 percent decrease — from the primary to the runoff, according to information provided by the Secretary of State’s office.  

Still, the biggest decline in early voters statewide happened among African Americans, who have typically backed Landrieu. The number of black voters casting early ballots fell by 24 percent from the Nov. 4 election period to the Dec. 6 election period.

Democrats have said there was a surge in black voters participating in early voting on the final day it was available, Saturday (Nov. 29). The Landrieu campaign is confident that African Americans will head to the polls this coming Saturday, the official election day and last time voting is available, according to officials.  

Keep in mind, historically, turnout for Louisiana’s runoff elections hasn’t been much smaller than their November elections.

Opinion polling looks similarly brutal for Landrieu, showing her trailing by double-digits. There’s no reason for Louisiana Republicans to take their foot off the gas, but chances are a week from now, the GOP is warmly welcoming the 54th member of their caucus.

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