Obi-Wan, at the beginning of the week:
But the fear and anger factor over economic disruption is powerful. It could rise to a 1974 level where voters just want to express their anger and take it out on the incumbent and his party. That’s the nightmare scenario, where you lose all sorts of good Republicans in the Senate and House.
But probably the least emotional pollster around told somebody I know about Obama’s lead returning late last week. This pollster said, “They aren’t voting for Obama. They are angry about what has happened to their 401(k) and are voting against Bush. They actually favor McCain.” …
What is justified is hope. A stable week economically and a little bit of a finish by McCain and it is doable. Remember this isn’t 1974 or even 1976 in one important way. There’s a GOP candidate who probably had blow- out debate . And that may be the single most important thing voters most remember on election day.
On the one hand, it’s the worst October for the markets since 1987. On the other hand, it’s Dow’s the best single week in decades, up 8.7 percent; the S&P 500 was up 8.8 percent and the Nasdaq had gained 8.6 percent.
This is not to say a good week for the markets puts McCain over the top. But his slide in the polls coincided with the market’s turbulence; if the week had been terrible, the number of voters who concluded “This is all Bush’s fault, I’m voting for Obama” would probably have been larger.