In 2004, the national exit poll (weighted to the final count) showed Bush winning white women by an 11 point margin (55% to 44%).
The September 2008 Franklin and Marshall College Poll, released today:
The largest changes in candidate preference since our June survey are among fundamentalist Christians, white men, and white women. McCain’s advantage over Obama among fundamentalist Christians has increased from 8 points to 30 points; his advantage among white men has increased from 7 points to 28 points; and his advantage among white women has increased from 5 points to 17 points.
All usual caveats apply — this is a poll of registered voters, etc., a lot can change (nice sample size, though, 1,320). But if Obama loses white women by 17 points on Election Day, McCain wins the election, and we’ll probably be able to call it a night relatively early that Tuesday.
So, uh, how is Joe Biden feeling these days, anyway?
UPDATE: Another interesting item from F&M: Obama’s winning 9 percent of Republicans, while McCain wins 16 percent of Democrats. There were many hinky* things about the Washington Post poll earlier this week, but among them, they had 88 percent of Democrats backing Obama, but only 86 percent of Republicans backing McCain, a reversal of the trend from most other polls.
* By hinky, I mean… well, you might remember this:
Marshall Biggs: It’s hinky, Sam. I mean, this guy is a college graduate. He became a doctor. I mean, he ain’t gonna go through here with all this security. Hinky.
Deputy Marshal Sam Gerard: Biggs, what does that mean, hinky?
Marshall Biggs: I don’t know. Strange. Weird.
Deputy Marshal Sam Gerard:: Well, why don’t you say strange or weird? I mean hinky, that has no meaning.
Marshal Biggs: Well, we say hinky.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: I don’t want you guys using words with no meaning.