The Campaign Spot

McCain-Palin Ahead in Ohio, Even With a Democrat-Heavy Sample

Tomorrow Strategic Vision will be releasing Ohio and Georgia polls, and what they found in the Buckeye State really surprises me.
In Ohio, they find McCain-Palin ahead of Obama-Biden up, 48 percent to 44 percent. But what makes those numbers really eye-opening is the breakdown of the sample: 576 (48%) identified themselves as Democrats; 444 (37%) identified themselves as Republicans; and 170 (15%) identified themselves as Independent or other party affiliation.
In Georgia, they find McCain/Palin ahead of Obama/Biden, 52 percent to 39 percent. In that sample, the GOP/Dem/Ind split is 46-41-13.
The margin of error in both polls is plus or minus three percentage points.

It’s now pretty plausible to argue that if Obama is going to win the presidency, he’s going to have to do it without Ohio and without Florida. Not impossible, but quite difficult.