Another chapter in the “Everything That Happens Is Always Bad News for the GOP” narrative of the media . . .
The Republican establishment won big during this year’s midterm elections, fending off far-right candidates in primary races who might have threatened the party’s bid to retake full control of Congress.
2016 will be tougher.
GOP leaders will have to keep an eye on a wide-open presidential primary, along with internal party fights at the House, Senate and gubernatorial levels. That could spread the party thin and leave an opening for conservative activists to pluck off establishment leaders with greater ease, particularly in congressional races as much of the attention shifts to the battle for the White House.
Oh, no! Republicans need to run good candidates for president, Senate, and House races simultaneously!
Just like every other presidential year.
Republicans enter the 2016 cycle with 247 House seats and 54 Senate seats — a much bigger cushion than almost anyone expected. Republicans would happily trade 29 House seats and 4 Senate seats in exchange for the White House. If a Republican candidate wins the presidency in 2016, odds are that the GOP will have a good year in the House and Senate races anyway.
As for those allegedly far-right candidates challenging GOP incumbents . . . how many of the 2014 results represent the Republican establishment being shrewd and how many reflect the primary challengers being pretty flawed? Yes, in the Mississippi Senate primary runoff, Thad Cochran’s campaign brought in Democratic voters, a move many grassroots conservatives considered to be dirty pool. But was Chris McDaniel really the ideal conservative challenger to Cochran? Was Matt Bevin, with his company taking state aid and past donations to Democrats, really the most effective challenger available against Mitch McConnell? (Looking back at the McConnell campaign’s sharp elbows and enormous structural advantages, was taking on McConnell always a fool’s errand?) Wouldn’t tea-party activists in South Carolina have been wiser to unite behind one challenger to Lindsey Graham, instead of being divided among three? Milton Wolf ran a solid enough campaign, but you have to wonder how he would have done without those “macabre jokes” on the x-ray postings. It’s easy for your team to look great when the other team fumbles.
Maybe self-described tea-party candidates will do better in the GOP primaries of the 2016 cycle. But no one should be surprised when most Republican incumbents survive their primaries; incumbency provides serious financial, name-recognition, and organizational advantages. A challenger has less room for error and is almost always less experienced in the skill of campaigning. Today’s unvarnished, direct expression of views becomes tomorrow’s gaffe.
But any cycle where Republicans elect Ben Sasse, Joni Ernst, and Cory Gardner to the Senate, and manage to knock off the House majority leader, is a pretty darn good year for the Tea Party’s agenda.