The Obama campaign releases a video with campaign manager Jim Messina, discussing the state of the race.
“We’re actually ahead of where we were at this point last time around. Remember summer of 2008? Folks don’t remember it this way, but in May and June 2008, a lot of polls were saying we would never pull it off. In fact, eight different national polls had us anywhere from neck-and-neck to down a few points.”
Perhaps people don’t remember it that way because that’s not what happened.
If you look at the RealClearPolitics archives, the 15 polls released in May 2008 showed McCain ahead twice, and one tie; the other 12 had Obama ahead by 2 to 11 percentage points. Every poll released in the month of June 2008 had Obama ahead, from anywhere from 3 to 14 percentage points.
Also unmentioned, but noticeable on the map displayed by Messina, the Obama campaign considers Wisconsin to be a “toss-up” or “undecided.”