Middle Cheese checks in:
As of today, I think Mitt is ahead in Florida and Virginia. Mitt will be in Florida all day on Saturday campaigning with Marco Rubio, with goal of putting Florida away. Virginia leans Romney; the campaign going up with ads blasting Obama’s comments about the Navy in Tidewater.
Colorado and New Hampshire are looking good, but too close to call. Obama’s up slightly in Iowa and Nevada, but I’d also characterize those as too close to call. There’s a new Rasmussen Pennsylvania poll showing Obama +5 ahead; it’ll take a late surge for Romney to win there. My guess is that Michigan is more likely to go for Mitt than Pennsylvania.
Bottom line: Election comes down to Ohio, I think. Nail-biter.