After Middle Cheese’s last update of the outlook in key swing states, a lot of readers noticed Wisconsin wasn’t mentioned. My source, formerly of the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign and now talking regularly to the Romney big cheeses, wanted to check in with someone:
I left Wisconsin off my last report because I wanted to check in with a “Middle Cheesehead” source in the Badger State.
He says the trend in Wisconsin is moving in the right direction, although Romney is about 2 points behind Obama right now. Enthusiasm among GOP voters is very high. The Milwaukee collar counties (Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee) are mostly Republican and will turn out strongly for the Romney/Ryan ticket. The Fox River cities up through Green Bay are not as well organized and the GOP needs to put more ground game effort there first, and then second work west of Madison to LaCrosse and south along the river. Some of those voters are potential Baldwin/Romney ticket splitters. Let’s remember that the ground game infrastructure from the Walker recalls and related elections remains intact. According to Middle-Cheesehead, all Team Romney needs to do is crank up the ground game a bit in the above-mentioned areas, and they could win Wisconsin by 2 points.
As you undoubtedly hear a lot these days, a Wisconsin win would make Ohio moot, as long as Romney takes the Southern states that currently look good (North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia) and keeps his lead in New Hampshire and Colorado.