The Campaign Spot

Middle Cheese: The State of the Race, with 48 Hours to Go

Middle Cheese checks in, having talked to some of the Big Cheeses over at the Romney campaign:

Here’s where Team Romney’s take on the state of the race with 48 hours to go:

FL — Obama has a 60 percent drop off in early/absentee voting from 2008.

VA — Obama has a 20 percent drop off early/absentee votes in counties they won in 2008.

OH — Obama under-performing in coal counties of OH. Romney leading by double-digits over Obama in 21 of the last 24 polls among independents.

IA — Obama needed a 130k early/absentee vote lead; he has 90k right now.

CO — Romney has 50k early/absentee vote lead; Obama needed to have a lead in early/absentee voting.

NV — Obama needed 80k early/absentee vote lead coming out of Clark County; he has 71k.  Romney needs strong turnout in rest of state.

PA — 96 percent of vote is on Election Day. Polls show rapidly tightening race. 30k showed up for Romney rally in Bucks County last night.

WI — early/absentee vote is very encouraging (sorry, no numbers).

NH — 90 percent of vote on Election Day. WMUR poll shows 47-47 tied–9 point swing from last poll.

Overall, Team Romney is extremely confident for several reasons: 1) a 5-7 point advantage on voter intensity, 2) a double digit lead among independents, 3) in D+9 polls, Obama can’t break 50 percent, 4) GOP matching or exceeding Obama in voter contacts (440,000 made in OH over the weekend).


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