The Campaign Spot

Monday Morning’s Polling Roundup: Michigan and Illinois

After most polls in Illinois showed Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner ahead of Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn, the Chicago Tribune offered a stunning poll showing Quinn ahead by 11. Had the race suddenly and completely turned upside down? Or was the Tribune’s poll just a wildly-off-base sample?

This morning, We Ask America offers a new result that comes down somewhere in the middle, finding Rauner ahead, but by a much smaller margin, 44 percent to 41 percent.

We Ask America concludes:

After holding a double-digit lead a few weeks ago, the gap narrows . . . just as it did four years ago when Republican State Senator Bill Brady led Quinn by 10 points a month out from the election only to lose a relatively close race. Despite running a state that’s home to massive debt, terribly low job creation rates, and a pension system that has almost single-handedly lead to a credit rating close to “non-investment grade”, Pat Quinn has pulled within the margin of error.

There is time left, and Bruce Rauner has the wherewithal to unleash the hounds with a wave of his checkbook, but the ticking of the clock is growing louder every day.

That pollster also surveyed Michigan, and found incumbent GOP governor Rick Snyder tied with his Democratic challenger, Mark Schauer.

It should be noted that no first-term Michigan governor has lost a re-election bid in more than 100 years. Snyder, who some say waited too late in the game to hit the airwaves with his pro-business campaign messaging, seems to be banking on the fact that Mr. Schauer will run out of funds before this thing is all said and done. But blood in the water usually leads to increased contributions, so that may be a false hope.

To this point, all we know is this one is close . . . real close.

In the state’s U.S. Senate race, Republican Terri Lynn Land has proven competitive, but rarely ahead of Democrat Gary Peters. The latest poll shows more of the same, with Peters ahead, 42 percent to 39 percent.


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