A common argument is that even though Barack Obama is in a relatively weak position for an incumbent president, his “favorable” numbers are much higher than his “job approval” numbers, and his personal likeability will carry him to victory in November. Nate Silver is unconvinced, but concludes, “We’ll have a better sense for where Mr. Romney’s numbers are likely to settle in, and whether they represent a real concern for him or just a transient annoyance, once the general election campaign has become more substantive a couple of months from now.”
Interestingly, two polls out today show that Romney’s favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is quite comparable to President Obama’s.
Romney favorability: 33
Romney unfavorability: 38
Romney Net: -5
Obama favorability: 45
Obama unfavorability: 49
Obama Net: -4
Romney favorability: 29
Romney unfavorability: 34
Romney Net: -5
Obama favorability: 42
Obama unfavorability: 45
Obama Net: -3
These numbers aren’t great news for Romney, but with about a third of respondents not yet having a favorable or unfavorable opinion, he could improve them. It seems likely that most Americans know what they think of President Obama after three and a half years in office.