The Campaign Spot

Mystery Solved

Democrats’ Party ID advantage, according to exit polls: 39 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, 29 percent Independent.

It was on the far edge, but within the range I had been thinking. To refresh, the McCain camp had predicted 3 to 5 percent, I had figured the electorate would be “4 to 7 percent more Democrats than Republicans. Michael Barone said he could not rule out 8 or 9 percent. One of my most pessimistic buddies was putting it at 15 percent.”

Gallup put the Democrats’ party ID advantage at 12 percent. Rasmussen had it at 6.5 percent, and nailed the percentages for Obama and McCain.

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