The Campaign Spot

New Jersey’s Tied! Er, in a Hypothetical Three Way With Obama, Bloomberg, and Thompson

I have little doubt that Fred Thompson has, or is well on his way to establishing himself as a major contender for the Republican presidential nomination. The Big Three has, for all extents and purposes, become the Big Four.

But let’s note that in the much-discussed recent Rasmussen poll, Fred Thompson gained six points in a week; it was Giuliani 23, Thompson 17 last week and now it’s 23 all. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next one had Thompson slipping back down by a few points; if that comes to pass, it shouldn’t be interpreted as Fredmania jumping the shark or some other hair-trigger overcaffeinated interpretation. It looks like Fred is building, slowly but streadily, and this week’s tied result is probably a bit of statistical noise.
Rasmussen shows both McCain and Romney losing ground.
Rasmussen’s other weird result of the week? In a hypothetical three way matchup between Barack Obama, Fred Thompson, and New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg among New Jersey respondents, Obama and Bloomberg tie at 32 while Fred gets 20 percent.
If you go with the all-New York lineup, of Rudy, Hillary, and Bloomberg, Hillary wins 38 percent to 29 percent for Rudy and 21 percent for Bloomberg.

Most Popular

The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

The polling aggregator on the website RealClearPolitics shows the margin in polls led by Joe Biden in a blue font and the ones led by Donald Trump in red. For a while, the battleground states have tended to be uniformly blue, except for polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group. If you are a firm believer only in ... Read More

The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

The polling aggregator on the website RealClearPolitics shows the margin in polls led by Joe Biden in a blue font and the ones led by Donald Trump in red. For a while, the battleground states have tended to be uniformly blue, except for polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group. If you are a firm believer only in ... Read More
Media

Jeffrey Toobin and Our Public-Hate Ritual

Oh, Jeffrey Toobin — let him among us with a free hand cast the first stone. Toobin, a writer for The New Yorker and fixture on CNN, was participating in a role-playing exercise on a Zoom call with his magazine colleagues, wargaming election-night scenarios. Toobin was standing in for the courts when he ... Read More
Media

Jeffrey Toobin and Our Public-Hate Ritual

Oh, Jeffrey Toobin — let him among us with a free hand cast the first stone. Toobin, a writer for The New Yorker and fixture on CNN, was participating in a role-playing exercise on a Zoom call with his magazine colleagues, wargaming election-night scenarios. Toobin was standing in for the courts when he ... Read More