The Campaign Spot

New Poll in Iowa: Cain, Romney Split Lead, Gingrich Just Behind

JMC Enterprises sends along their latest poll of Iowa Republicans and finds a competitive race among likely caucus-goers: Herman Cain 20 percent, Mitt Romney 20 percent, Newt Gingrich 16 percent, Michele Bachmann 6 percent, Ron Paul 6 percent, Rick Perry 4 percent, Rick Santorum 4 percent, 23 percent undecided.

Their methodology: “For this poll, we chose a sample of known Republican households across the state for an automated poll.  We only sampled respondents who indicated they had some likelihood of attending the Iowa caucus.The survey was conducted November 2. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 4.3%.”

The gender split surprises me a bit: “54% of the respondents were female, and 46% were male. The geographic breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 20% came from the 319 area code, 25% came from the 515 area code, 10% came from the 563 area code, 20% came from the 641 area code, and 25% came from the 712 area code. The survey was conducted November 2.”

I would note that in 2008, the split in the Republican caucus was precisely the opposite, 54 percent male, 46 percent male. Where were all the women? Voting in the Democrat caucus, which split 57 percent women, 43 percent men. But with no competitive race on the Democratic side this cycle, perhaps more Iowa women are planning on participating in the GOP primary.

Most Popular

White House

For Democrats, the Party’s Over

If the Democrats are really tempted by impeachment, bring it on. Since the day after the 2016 election they have been threatening this, placing their chips on the Russian-collusion fantasy and then on the phantasmagoric charade of obstruction of justice. The attorney general accurately gave the ingredients of the ... Read More
Elections

The 24 Democrats

Every presidential primary ends with one winner and a lot of losers. Some might argue that one or two once-little-known candidates who overperform low expectations get to enjoy a form of moral victory. (Ben Carson and Rick Perry might be happy how the 2016 cycle ended, with both taking roles in Trump’s cabinet. ... Read More