The Campaign Spot

In New York, GOP’s Paladino Trails Cuomo by Only 6? Only 6?!?

Two shockers from Quinnipiac this morning, each one making the other a wee bit suspect.

In Pennsylvania

Republican Pat Toomey has hit the magic 50 percent mark as he leads Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak 50 – 43 percent in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today.

Pennsylvania likely voters disapprove 56 – 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, the independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds.  This first general election survey of Pennsylvania likely voters in this election cycle cannot be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

I’m sure Team Toomey will take it, but a seven-point margin is actually one of the better ones Sestak has seen lately.

But here’s the holy-smokes-can-this-be-real one:

Republican Carl Paladino, aided by a 4 -1 margin among Tea Partiers, trails New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic candidate for Governor, 49 – 43 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Only 18 percent of New York State likely voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, but they back Paladino 77 – 18 percent.

Cuomo leads 87 – 8 percent among Democrats while Paladino leads 83 – 13 percent among Republicans and 49 – 43 percent among independent voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds.  This first likely voter general election survey in New York in this election cycle can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.  

I’ve been lamenting for weeks that a bunch of strong GOP House candidates in New York were going to be hurt by the lack of top-of-the-ticket help or even a competitive statewide race among the big three: the governor’s race and the two Senate races. Well, Paladino, who’s pledging to clean up Albany with a baseball bat, looks like he’s in a competitive race.

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