Another reason to be skeptical of the D+19 polls, courtesy Gallup…
Eighty-six percent of voters who say they voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are backing Obama again this year, a smaller proportion than the 92% of 2008 John McCain voters who are supporting 2012 Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Nine percent of 2008 Obama voters have switched to supporting Romney this year, while 5% of McCain voters have switched to Obama.
The results are based on July 23-29 Gallup Daily tracking with more than 2,000 registered voters who reported voting in the 2008 election. Of these, 48% said they voted for Obama and 42% McCain, with the remaining 10% saying they voted for another candidate or not disclosing their vote choice. However, the six-percentage-point advantage in reported voting for Obama is similar to the actual seven-point edge he had over McCain in the final 2008 returns, 53% to 46%.
If you allocate Obama 86 percent of his 2008 total and 5 percent of McCain’s 2008 total, and allocate Romney 92 percent of McCain’s total and 9 percent of Obama’s 2008 total, you end up with a very, very narrow Obama lead: 47.8 percent to 46.8 percent.
For Romney, there is much work to be done in the next three months and change. But he’s getting there…
By the way… who are these five percent of McCain 2008 voters who are voting for President Obama?