The Campaign Spot

No-hio Strategy From Obama?

Interesting wrinkle in this story:

Despite what appears to be a shrinking lead, Obama aides argued that they maintain a strong position in the race.
The Obama camp is counting on holding all the states won by Kerry in 2004. The campaign also expressed confidence in its ability to flip Iowa and New Mexico, two states that went for Bush in the last election.
If Obama won all those states, they’d have 264 electoral votes. The remaining six needed for a win, said Plouffe, could come from a victory in Colorado, Indiana, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, or Nebraska.

What’s missing from that list?
Ohio.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama won Iowa, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama won New Mexico.
Colorado looks very close. I’m very skeptical that Obama wins Indiana. (Maybe if he had picked Bayh.) Only once in a great while does Obama lead a poll in Florida, and that’s usually by the skin of his teeth. McCain’s lead bounces around, but I wouldn’t paint the Sunshine State blue. Virginia looks like a tough fight, but I think McCain keeps it. Nevada looks closely contested, and the Obama campaign ignores the fact that they need six more electoral votes and Nevada has five.
When a campaign claims they’re going to win a state that the last poll indicated they trail by 19 points, as in the case of Obama and Nebraska, it may be appropriate to begin drug testing.
But while Team Obama thinks they keep all of Kerry’s states, I’d keep an eye on New Hampshire, and the last two polls in Michigan give Obama a tiny, tiny lead.
UPDATE: A few readers wonder if Obama can play for one of Nebraska’s electoral votes, as they partially allocate by congressional district. Maine does that too, making me wonder how moose-hunting Palin will play up there…
Also, if they win Nevada, Iowa, and New Mexico, and the rest of the map stays the same, it’s a 269-269 tie. That puts the election to the House of Representatives, where the outlook would not look good, although along the way you could end up with the previously unimaginable President Biden or President Pelosi. 

Most Popular

Immigration

What Now for Trump’s Border Wall?

The verdict on the U.S.–Mexico border wall President Trump promised to construct is decidedly mixed as the year comes to a close. The “big, beautiful wall,” as Trump referred to it, reached 400 miles in length by the end of October, when the Department of Homeland Security held a ceremony hailing the ... Read More
Immigration

What Now for Trump’s Border Wall?

The verdict on the U.S.–Mexico border wall President Trump promised to construct is decidedly mixed as the year comes to a close. The “big, beautiful wall,” as Trump referred to it, reached 400 miles in length by the end of October, when the Department of Homeland Security held a ceremony hailing the ... Read More
White House

A Justified Pardon

President Trump’s pardon of retired General Michael Flynn, who fleetingly served as his first national-security adviser, was a justified act of clemency. You don’t have to be a fan of how Trump has wielded his pardon power (often recklessly and on behalf of friends and supporters) or believe that Flynn was ... Read More
White House

A Justified Pardon

President Trump’s pardon of retired General Michael Flynn, who fleetingly served as his first national-security adviser, was a justified act of clemency. You don’t have to be a fan of how Trump has wielded his pardon power (often recklessly and on behalf of friends and supporters) or believe that Flynn was ... Read More
Culture

New England Journal of Medicine Pushes Reparations

Reparations would grant African Americans government benefits not paid to other Americans to rectify the awful sin of slavery and the "peculiar institution's" residual harm. It is a favored policy of hard progressives, so of course, the New England Journal of Medicine -- which regularly promotes left-wing causes ... Read More
Culture

New England Journal of Medicine Pushes Reparations

Reparations would grant African Americans government benefits not paid to other Americans to rectify the awful sin of slavery and the "peculiar institution's" residual harm. It is a favored policy of hard progressives, so of course, the New England Journal of Medicine -- which regularly promotes left-wing causes ... Read More

The New GOP

Ronald Reagan was dubbed the “Great Communicator.” Donald Trump might well be labeled the “Great Accelerator.” U.S. politics was polarized before President Trump, with both coalitions motivated mostly by fear of each other. We have gotten more polarized since Trump rode down that escalator. The Upper ... Read More

The New GOP

Ronald Reagan was dubbed the “Great Communicator.” Donald Trump might well be labeled the “Great Accelerator.” U.S. politics was polarized before President Trump, with both coalitions motivated mostly by fear of each other. We have gotten more polarized since Trump rode down that escalator. The Upper ... Read More
Books

Three Cheers for the Quiet Ones

People often dismiss shy, quiet characters in literature. Readers prefer to identify with Jo March, Elizabeth Bennett, or Anne Shirley -- those delightful, bold, and charming characters who made a deep impression on us when we first encountered them. While there’s nothing wrong with emulating or admiring these ... Read More
Books

Three Cheers for the Quiet Ones

People often dismiss shy, quiet characters in literature. Readers prefer to identify with Jo March, Elizabeth Bennett, or Anne Shirley -- those delightful, bold, and charming characters who made a deep impression on us when we first encountered them. While there’s nothing wrong with emulating or admiring these ... Read More