The Campaign Spot

This Is Not the Good News for Harry Reid That Some Insist

I’ve heard a bit of discussion about how the presence of a separate third-party, Tea Party candidate on the ballot helps the reelection prospects of Sen. Harry Reid, the glum and pallid Democrat of Nevada who speaks with no discernible [insert ethnic joke here] dialect. But my reaction to the Public Opinion Strategies poll is the opposite: Even with a Tea Party candidate taking 9 to 11 percent against the top two GOP candidates, Reid still loses to Sue Lowden or Jerry Danny* Tarkanian? (Admittedly, it is much closer, but Reid still finishes with 37 to 39 percent.)

This shouldn’t be that controversial a prediction: If Harry Reid gets 39 percent or less on Election Day, he’s toast. There’s no way a third-party candidate gets 22 percent in Nevada.

Of course, there are those who suspect the Tea Party of Nevada candidate is a false-flag operation designed to divide the conservative vote.

* UPDATE: Clearly, my subconscious yearns for a senator who chews on a towel during a tense, close-fought vote…