The Campaign Spot

Not Many Public Polls Released This August!

Also in today’s Jolt, hitting e-mailboxes now . . . 

Hey, Pollsters, Can We Get Some Fresh Ones in These Key Senate Races?

Assessing the state of the midterm elections, in just a few sentences.

Larry Sabato: “In every single one of the Crystal Ball’s toss-up states, (Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina), the Republican Senate candidate has not yet opened up a real polling lead in any of them.”

(Number of public polls in August in Alaska: 1. Number of public polls in August in Arkansas: 1. Number of public polls in August in Iowa: 0. Number of public polls in August in Louisiana: 0. Number of public polls in August in North Carolina: 3, two of which have Republican Thom Tillis ahead.)

Nate Silver: “Since 2000, the average Senate poll has missed the final margin in the race by about 5 percentage points.”

Sean Trende: “Individual pollsters can easily find results suggesting that a race is opening up when, in fact, it is tightening, and vice-versa.”

Carl Cameron of Fox News: “Democrats who, earlier this year, thought they could defend their majority, now fear GOP momentum could cost them even more than six seats.”

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