The Campaign Spot

On November 2, We May See More Than 99 Dem Buffoons Go By.

Politico tells us 99 Democrat-held seats are in play.

Hey, pal, some of us had that figure in May. The cool kids are talking 117 now.

Actually, looking over yesterday’s list, I would take off UT-2 (Matheson) and OK-2 (Boren). There are a handful more there where the Democrat may end up winning pretty comfortably: WV-3 (Rahall), maybe RI-1 (open seat held by Patrick Kennedy), maybe NY-13 (McMahon). There are a couple more where at least one poll says it’s competitive, but I’m not quite a believer: OR-4 (DeFazio), NJ-6 (Pallone), MI-15 (Dingell), MI-5 (Kildee).

That’s still 108.

As for vulnerable Republicans, Joseph Cao of Louisiana obviously faces tough odds in his heavily Democratic district. The Democrats are high on their odds against Charles Djou in Hawaii, but he outhustled the Democrats in the special election and if he’s the underdog, he’s not that much worse than 50-50. Will Democrats pick up the seat currently held by Republican Mike Castle in Delaware? Yes, almost certainly. After that, you start reaching.

Ben Quayle in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district? Yes, it’s possible, but this is an R+9 district where the top of the ticket, Sen. John McCain and Gov. Jan Brewer, should be winning by landslides. Perhaps the former vice president’s son’s past off-color writing and the perception of a monarchist dynasty will be enough to create a big Democratic upset. Perhaps.

Dan Lungren in California? It’s possible, but hard to picture a Republican winning in 2008 when McCain was losing California badly but losing in 2010, when Whitman and Fiorina are running competitive races.

Michele Bachmann in Minnesota? No. Nope. Not gonna happen. Write it down. Democrats wasted $3.5 million in that race, and wasted millions more trying to unseat Joe Wilson in South Carolina.

The perennials, Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach in Pennsylvania, or Dave Reichert in Washington? Oh, I suppose the Democratic challengers might have some unbelievable secret get-out-the-vote effort, the GOP incumbent might have a last-minute, unforced, macaca-level error, or the top of the ticket help might somehow skip this district . . . but I wouldn’t count on it.

(For those who think there’s a typo in the headline, I was trying — too hard, probably — to evoke “99 Luftballons.”)

Most Popular


George Packer Gets Mugged by Reality

Few journalists are as respected by, and respectable to, liberals as The Atlantic’s George Packer. The author of The Assassin's Gate (2005), The Unwinding (2013), and a recently published biography of Richard Holbrooke, Our Man, Packer has written for bastions of liberal thought from the New York Times Magazine ... Read More

How to Bend the News

This, from ABC, is a nice example of a news organization deliberately bending the truth in order to advance a narrative that it wishes were true but is not: Venerable gun manufacturer Colt says it will stop producing the AR-15, among other rifles, for the consumer market in the wake of many recent mass ... Read More

Trump’s Total Culture War

 Donald Trump is waging a nonstop, all-encompassing war against progressive culture, in magnitude analogous to what 19th-century Germans once called a Kulturkampf. As a result, not even former president George W. Bush has incurred the degree of hatred from the left that is now directed at Trump. For most of ... Read More

Iran’s Act of War

Last weekend’s drone raid on the Saudi oil fields, along with the Israeli elections, opens a new chapter in Middle Eastern relations. Whether the attack on Saudi oil production, which has temporarily stopped more than half of it, was launched by Iranian-sponsored Yemeni Houthis or by the Iranians themselves is ... Read More