From a very confident memo from the NRSC:
Every Republican incumbent running for reelection will win, as there is not a single state in which an incumbent Republican nominee is facing a substantial threat: In Arizona, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Idaho, South Dakota, Iowa, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, incumbent Republicans hold commanding double-digit leads.
We also strongly expect to hold every Republican open seat. The national Democrats have ceded New Hampshire, Kansas, Utah and Ohio – and they are spending no money in these races. The Republican nominees in each of these races hold a commanding double-digit lead over their Democrat opponents:
In New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte leads liberal Paul Hodes by 10 points, 48.5 percent to 38.5 percent. In Kansas, Jerry Moran leads by more than 40 points. Mike Lee leads in Utah by over 25 points. And in Ohio, Rob Portman leads failed jobs czar Lee Fisher by 12 points, 50.3 percent to 38.3 percent.
In Alaska, Joe Miller appears to be holding a significant lead over both his opponents, and we expect him to win on Election Day.
As for Florida, Marco Rubio has opened a commanding lead as political opportunist Charlie Crist and liberal Kendrick Meek fight for over the Democrat electorate. While the national Democrats have left Kendrick Meek out to dry, all the while going out of their way not to agitate Charlie Crist, the NRSC has spent $2.5 in coordinated funds in September to help boost Marco. Although we expect the race to narrow, we will win.
That leaves Kentucky and Missouri as the only two states the national Democrats are seriously investing in.
In Missouri, despite the national Democrats spending over $3 million to smear Roy Blunt with baseless attacks, Blunt continues to lead Robin Carnahan. Considering President Obama lost Missouri at the peak of his popularity in 2008, despite massively outspending Senator McCain, it’s no wonder Robin Carnahan has consistently trailed Roy Blunt in the polls since January.
In Kentucky, Dr. Rand Paul holds consistent leads over Louisville liberal trial lawyer Jack Conway. Just as in Missouri, our Republican nominee soundly rejects the costly, unpopular Obama agenda while the Democrat candidate enthusiastically embraces ObamaCare and the failed stimulus. Kentucky voted overwhelmingly for John McCain in 2008 and there’s no doubt the Bluegrass State will send Rand Paul to the Senate to work side-by-side with Leader McConnell to stop the Obama agenda.
Guess they don’t put much stock in that poll showing Murkowski only a few percentage points behind Joe Miller in Alaska. Moving on to the Democrat-held seats:
John Hoeven will win North Dakota. In Indiana, despite Brad Ellsworth running as “Sheriff” Ellsworth, Hoosiers know him as Nancy Pelosi’s loyal deputy who supported ObamaCare and the failed stimulus. Dan Coats currently has a 16-point lead and will go on to victory. Finally, the national Democrats will have abandoned their incumbent Agriculture Committee Chairwoman, Senator Blanche Lincoln, who is trailing by nearly 25 points according to the latest polls. The numbers above and below are based on the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Illinois – Mark Kirk (R) 40%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39.3%
We expect this race to be competitive to the end, but are confident Mark Kirk will defeat failed mob banker Alexi Giannoulias. While this is one of the few places President Obama remains above water in job approval, albeit slightly, one-party Democrat rule has led to corruption and scandal, and Illinois voters are in no mood to send another shady character to represent them.
Pennsylvania – Pat Toomey (R) 46.9%, Joe Sestak (D) 40%
The Democrats have spent over $3 million attacking Pat Toomey and he is in better shape today than he was a month ago. Because of the nature of the state, we think this race will be competitive to the end, but we will win.
Wisconsin – Ron Johnson (R) 52.3%, Russ Feingold 43.3%
Few Democrats would have expected Wisconsin to be such a strong pickup opportunity for Republicans this fall, but as President Obama’s approval rating plummeted in the state and voters began to scrutinize 18-year incumbent Russ Feingold’s record, businessman Ron Johnson’s strong campaign has consistently picked up steam. We will provide Ron Johnson with whatever help he needs to maintain his lead over Feingold and win on November 2nd.
Colorado – Ken Buck (R) 49.5%, Michael Bennet (D) 43%
Despite being outspent by Governor Ritter’s appointed Senator Michael Bennet, Ken Buck is poised to win in Colorado. Coloradans recognize that Michael Bennet rubberstamped President Obama’s failed stimulus, was the deciding vote in favor of ObamaCare, and recklessly gambled away taxpayer money as head of Denver Public Schools. The NRSC will invest whatever means necessary to help Ken Buck win.
West Virginia – John Raese (R) 47%, Joe Manchin (D) 44.5%
Democrats expected liberal Governor Joe Manchin to waltz to victory in the Mountain State, but as voters continue to learn the difference between ‘West Virginia Joe Manchin,’ and ‘Washington Joe Manchin’ — who eagerly supports ObamaCare and the failed stimulus — businessman John Raese continues to surge.
Nevada – Harry Reid (D) 44.6%, Sharron Angle (R) 43.2%
Sharron Angle continues to run neck-and-neck with embattled Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. We fully expect this race to come down to the wire, and while Sharron Angle continues to raise massive sums of money, the NRSC will devote whatever resources necessary to maximize Angle’s chance of defeating Reid.
Connecticut – Dick Blumenthal (D) 49.5%, Linda McMahon (R) 45.5%
Linda McMahon has taken perpetual liar Dick Blumenthal’s lead from 41 points this January, to a mere 4 points today. These polls were recently validated by the DSCC’s decision to purchase media last week in an attempt to defend Blumenthal. Clearly, national Democrats weren’t planning on spending money in a state so handily won by President Obama in 2008.
California – Barbara Boxer (D) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 41.3%
Carly Fiorina has withstood the initial attacks by Senator Boxer and is still within striking distance. More importantly, Boxer continues to be mired in the mid-to-upper forties, an ominous sign for a 28-year incumbent. The NRSC just provided Carly’s campaign with $2 million in coordinated funding and we hope to do more as this campaign enters the home stretch.
Washington State – Patty Murray (D) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 46.7%
While the DC Democratic intelligencia see fit to celebrate Patty Murray’s movement, serious analysts should note that Republicans have only begun to prosecute our case against the 18-year incumbent. The NRSC is prepared to invest millions in this race to help elect Dino Rossi and hold Senator Murray accountable for her long record of higher spending, higher taxes and bigger government.
Delaware – Chris Coons (D) 53%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 37.3%
This is a tough blue state for Republicans, but even in Delaware polls show unease with the Democrats’ reckless spending and health care spending bill. Christine O’Donnell raised more money in one week than Chris Coons did in over six months. We expect her to be on the air soon and her war chest has already forced the DSCC to spend their scarce cash in Coons’ defense.
Summary
The NRSC began September with a nearly $1.6 million cash-on-hand advantage over our Democrat counterparts . . . Even when you take national party money out of the picture, our candidates hold a massive $14.7 million fundraising advantage so far over their Democrat opponents . . . Finally, the political environment clearly favors Republicans more heavily today than it did Democrats in 2006 and 2008: Independent voters prefer Republican candidates by a double-digit margin; Republican voters are 20 percent more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats; our candidates and the NRSC have a significant cash advantage. Given the hard facts, the onus is on Democrats to explain why — and how — their candidates can win with just 29 days until the election.