The Campaign Spot

Obama Job Approval Among Virginia Independents: 29 Percent

Quinnipiac’s latest survey in my home state of Virginia offers plenty of bad news for President Obama . . . but it’s not quite as reassuring to the GOP as they might hope:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as the presidential choice of Virginia Republicans 25 – 19 percent, with U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann at 5 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Perry tops Romney 43 – 36 percent in a two-man faceoff, but both run neck and neck against President Barack Obama. Voters in Virginia, a key state in President Obama’s 2008 winning coalition, disapprove 54 – 40 percent of the job he is doing, down from a 48 – 48 percent split in a June 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University. Obama does not deserve four more years, voters say 51 – 41 percent. In Virginia’s U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen, both former governors, remain in a statistical dead heat more than 13 months before the voting.

Seeing a vivid gender gap makes me wonder if we’ll see the same phenomenon in other states:

There is a sizable gender gap in the Perry-Romney two-man race. Perry leads among men 49 – 33 percent, but trails by a narrow 40 – 37 percent among women. Perry also laps Romney 51 – 29 percent among white evangelical Christians, a key part of the GOP coalition. Among military households the two are in a statistical tie tipping to Perry 40 – 38 percent.

But considering how unpopular Obama is, one might have expected bigger leads for the GOP frontrunners:

In possible 2012 matchups, Obama has 44 percent to Perry’s 42 percent, while Romney gets 44 percent to Obama’s 42 percent, all too close to call. Obama does much better against two other Republicans, besting Bachmann 48 – 37 percent and Palin 50 – 35 percent. “At this point Romney and Perry both are in a horse race against President Barack Obama, challenging Romney’s ‘electability’ argument,” said Brown. “The big difference is among independent voters, where Romney holds a solid 44 – 35 percent lead, and Perry is in a 40 – 40 percent dead heat with the president.”

And while Obama has slipped among independents everywhere, his Virginia numbers are particularly vivid:

Obama’s job approval is plummeting among independent voters, who disapprove 62 – 29 percent, compared to a 54 – 41 percent disapproval June 30. Republicans disapprove 87 – 11 percent while Democrats approve 83 – 13 percent, down from 92 – 5 percent in June. Men disapprove 61 – 36 percent, as women disapprove 49 – 43 percent. White voters disapprove 67 – 28 percent, while black voters approve 83 – 11 percent.

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