The Campaign Spot

Obama Leads in Poll Sample With Lots of Democrats

Of all the blue states that could swing to red in 2012, I would put New Mexico pretty far back on the list, behind Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and perhaps a few others. But the GOP did enjoy a bit of a comeback there in 2010, winning the governor’s mansion and a House seat, as well as defeating an incumbent Democratic secretary of state.

The latest poll of New Mexico from Public Policy Polling shows Obama way ahead of any GOP challenger. But to reprise my traditional complaint, the sample looks like it includes a few too many Democrats.

On Election Day 2008, New Mexico’s exit polls showed an electorate that was 52 percent women, 48 percent men.It also showed an electorate that was 44 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican, 28 percent independent. The latest PPP sample in New Mexico is 54 percent women, 46 percent men, and 55 percent Democrat, 29 percent Republican, and 16 percent independent. While it’s possible that New Mexico’s 2012 electorate will look different from the 2008 one, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Democrats gain another 11 percent.

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