ARG puts Obama ahead of McCain, 50 percent to 46 percent.
And I’m usually willing to cut a pollster some slack on the partisan breakdown of their sample. But for this poll, the sample was 53 percent Democrat and 39 percent Republican. And the 8 percent of independents break for McCain, 51 percent to 41 percent.
A reader notes that on Election Day 2006, exit polls found the voter pool in Pennsylvania to be 43 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, and 19 percent independent. In 2004, it was 41 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, and 20 percent independent.
If you plug in the same ARG results with the voter makeup of 2006, you get, by my calculations, McCain 49.1 percent, Obama 46.19 percent.