The Campaign Spot

Obi-Wan, With a Quick Observation on California and Kentucky

Obi-Wan checks in, briefly:

“So think about it. As we discussed, the Democrats had exactly two pieces of good news in September. First, there were some polls putting Barbara Boxer ahead by 6, 7 or 8 (L.A. Times/USC, PPIC, CNN/Time). Second, there was a poll in Kentucky showing Rand Paul only ahead by 2.

“First, Rasmussen puts Paul up by 11; if he’s had a slide, it’s negligible. Now SurveyUSA has Boxer ahead by 3 and Rasmussen has her ahead by 4. Boxer’s back in the margin of error and even when she got some separation, we had some doubts about the samples.

“Boxer’s numbers never really moved from the mid-to-high 40s. She just bombarded Fiorina.”

Now Fiorina’s up on the air statewide again, with heavy NRSC backing.

Obi Wan continues, “The day after Politico, the Washington Post and New York Times do their third or fourth round of ’the Democrats are surging back,’ out come the Gallup numbers. Bad timing, fellas . . . But, wait, Rasmussen had the GOP lead down to three. Was he picking up something or was it just Sunday-night polling on a three-day average? (Michael Barone, who is maybe the smartest political guy in the history of smart political guys, has parsed the Gallup and Rasmussen disparity.)

“So, oscillations happen. Let us pay attention though, over the next week. Is there going to be some pullback in the GOP numbers? Doesn’t it have to happen at some point?

“Another question: is the Dem strategy of ‘going negative’ in so many states actually working? Or has it come way too early and is now dissipating? We saw that in the big buys against Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, and Scott Brown. Changed the numbers but only temporarily.

“Also, Republicans need to do a couple of things. More on that later.

“And is Dick Morris right? Is the real danger GOP ‘under-confidence’? Just in case he’s right, will somebody please try some ads against Chuck Schumer? His numbers are far from impressive and the guy running against him is credible. Image a Schumer-free Senate.”

(I can hear readers murmuring . . . “Wait a minute. I thought Obi-Wan might be Dick Morris or Michael Barone.”)

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