If I had to pick a currently held GOP House seat that surprisingly slips to the Democrats on Election Day, it might be this one:
While most of Florida’s 25 congressional races tilt toward Republicans this year, Democrats’ best chance for a takeaway is in South Florida’s sprawling 25th District, a new Sunshine State News Poll shows.
Republican David Rivera holds a 44-43 lead over Democrat Joe Garcia in a four-way contest for the seat being vacated by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Miami.
TEA Party candidate Rolly Arrojo garnered 6 percent, Whig Party hopeful Craig Porter got 2 percent and 5 percent were undecided in the Oct. 25-26 poll.
“Rivera should be considered the slight favorite to win based on historical voting patterns, but there are some red flags that could tilt this race to Garcia,” said Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted the poll.
Two things going for Rivera: He has a 39/36 favorable/unfavorable rating compared with 35/43 for Garcia, and he leads among the most likely voters by a 48-41 margin.
That’s not a terrible position for a GOP candidate, in a R+5 district, in a year when Florida Republicans have a monstrous margin in early voting so far. But I’ve had a bad feeling about this seat since incumbent Republican Mario Diaz-Balart announced he was leaving that district to run for Congress in the adjacent district.