The Campaign Spot

The Part of the Map I’m Watching

Philadelphia County ought to be Obama’s strongest county. He’s currently down eight percent, 54-46, and Obama is carrying that county 58 percent to 42 percent, with 57 percent of precincts in Philadelphia reporting. Once that county hits 100 percent, the counties that will still have to report are likely to be Hillary territory. In fact, a bunch in the center of the state have not reported any returns at all yet.

Once Philadelphia reports, Obama will only have a few winning counties that he can count on to narrow the margin.
If she’s still ahead by 8 percent with only her counties to report, the margin could grow quite a bit as the night wears on…
UPDATE: The King Number-Cruncher, the great Michael Barone, says that if Hillary ends up winning with 160,000 votes (his back-of-the-envelope margin), and you throw in the results of Michigan and Florida (even though Obama wasn’t on the ballot in Michigan, just “undecided”), she actually takes the popular vote lead.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Obama now leads Philly county 61 percent to 39 percent with 76 percent of precincts reporting. A margin of 70,000 votes or so…
But there are scattered mildly ominous signs for Obama: In Bucks County, the Philly suburbs, Hillary’s leading 2 to 1, although with only 9 percent reporting. She narrowly leads Delaware county, the suburbs west of Philly, with 35 percent reporting.
With 71 percent, she’s winning Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, 56 percent to 44 percent.
In the only other counties he’s leading, he leads by only a couple hundred votes here and there.
Remember who told you back on March 27, “The analysis suggests that it is not unthinkable that Obama could win only one or two counties.”
YET ANOTHER UPDATE: A few points worth noting in Hillary’s victory speech. There’s a big sign that says “PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN”, and Hillary goes over to shake hands, ensuring that it’s on camera. Over Hillary’s shoulder is a young man with boxing gloves — no doubt a reference to the debate reaction, and she says, “I’m in this race to fight for you.”
Also, the crowd chants at one point, “Yes, she can! Yes, she can!”