I asked Scott Rasmussen why his company’s polls have Thompson up, lately by seven to 10 points, when most other polls have Thompson performing second to Giuliani.
“Every poll has seen Fred Thompson gaining ground, so that’s a common point among all the polls,” Rasmussen said. “We are only group that’s doing any kind of a screen to determine who is likely to vote in a primary. It’s not just on all adults, not just on registered voters. When you include people not following the race closely, the candidate with the biggest name ID is going to win out. The tighter you draw the screen on your pool of respondents, the better Thompson performs.”
Rasmussen said his take on the GOP primary right now is right now is that everything is fluid. “Twenty percent are saying they’re not sure who they’re going to vote for, and nobody is reaching thirty percent. There are two sets of numbers that are particularly bouncing. When Thompson goes up, Romney goes down a little bit; they’re playing for the conservative semifinals. Then you’ve got Rudy and McCain, who are playing for the moderate semifinals, and McCain is bouncing back a little bit lately. So my sense is this race is waiting for somebody to grab a hold of it and take control. Giuliani is perceived by Republicans to be most electable, Thompson is perceived as most conservative, and Romney is leading the early states. Ordinarily, all three of those would be a sign of being the frontrunner.”
Rasmussen also noted, “We just did a poll last night that showed 58 percent of voters saying everything that has been going on with the campaign so far has been generally annoying and a waste of time.”