The Campaign Spot

Polls Like This Make Me Think 2010 Is Anti-Democrat, Not Anti-Incumbent

I’ve noted before that David Vitter is not my favorite senator, but he still leads, quite healthily, in Louisiana:

A new poll on the U.S. Senate race in Louisiana shows Democrat Charlie Melancon gaining slightly on Republican incumbent David Vitter, but there is still a huge gulf between them in terms of support. A month ago, Vitter held a 23-point lead over Melancon. It slipped to a 16-point lead in the Rasmussen survey, but Vitter still leads Melancon 52 to 36 percent.

There’s a big GOP wave coming, and a lot of Republicans who might be vulnerable in a normal year – Vitter, Richard Burr in North Carolina, Chuck Grassley in Iowa – are looking pretty safe. I keep hearing liberal bloggers contend that 2010 won’t be such a big year, but if Melancon, a fairly well-respected House member, can’t garner more than the mid-30s against Vitter with his infamous problems, where will they beat expectations?

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