I asked a New Hampshire political guru for his take on the Judd Gregg-to-Commerce move, and how this would shake out for the Granite State:
My understanding is that a deal has been struck that Obama will appoint Judd Gregg and that Gov. John Lynch (a Democrat) will fill the seat with Bonnie Newman (a “Lynch Republican”) who will (most likely) commit to NOT running again in 2010, thereby leaving the seat open setting up a Lynch vs. John Sununu Senate race.
Bonnie Newman will caucus with the Republicans and will likely be reliable on many spending issues, but she is NOT a supply sider by any means and will not shy away from tax increases.
Last year, John Sununu lost his reelection bid, 52 percent to 45 percent; the Libertarian candidate took 3 percent. He actually increased his vote total from his 2002 election bid by 85,372 votes, but Democratic turnout surged along with Obama’s victory in the state.