One of the smartest guys I know is Marshall Manson, former campaign manager, current PR genius. He heard from a colleague in Iowa about how the race is going in that vital state, and wrote up a short summary on our informal blog, On Tap. Key excerpt:
My take, Romney is going to win it, hands down. He’s been here in the state a lot, and he practically owns it. Fred Thompson will probably do well, but I don’t know that he’ll win it…Romney’s too invested to let him just come in and win, so I think it will be a hard-fought campaign between the two, and it could be close.
Marshall adds some vital cautionary notes at the link.