The Election Day edition of the Morning Jolt offers a list of 50 counties I’ll be watching tonight — in some cases, counties that have proven to be historical bellwethers of the national vote, and in others, counties that are useful measuring sticks for each candidate’s support. I’ve included the vote in 2008, both percentage and vote totals.
6 p.m. Eastern
INDIANA
Vigo County, Indiana (county seat: Terre Haute (pronounced ‘Terra – Hote’) perfect since 1956, and from 1960 to 2004, Vigo County had been within 3 percent of the national presidential vote every election. In 2008, Vigo County again voted with the winner, but Obama’s percentage of 57.3% was about 4.4% above Obama’s national vote.
Bush won this county with a 6.4 percentage point margin over John Kerry (52.8 percent to 46.4 percent)
Voter registration down from 76,000 to 74,000.
7 p.m. Eastern
VIRGINIA –
Prince William County (MAJOR BELLWETHER)
2004: Bush 53–47 2008: Obama 58-42
Obama 93,386 to McCain 67,589
Population: 402,002 Largest community: Dale City
Henrico County
Obama 56-44
Obama 86,262 to McCain 67,340
Loudoun County
Obama 54-46
Obama 74,607 to McCain 63,328
Winchester (independent city, not part of any county, small but useful)
Obama 52-47
Obama 5,268 to McCain 4,725
7:30 p.m. Eastern
NORTH CAROLINA
Forsyth (Winston-Salem)
2008: Obama 55-44
90,712 to 73,304
Pitt County (Greenville)
2008: Obama 54-46
39,763 to 33,429
Wake (Raleigh)
2008: Obama 57 to 43
247,914 to 183,291
OHIO
(Note that anyone on line at a polling place in Ohio at 7:30 will be permitted to cast a ballot.)
Cuyahoga (Cleveland):
2004: Kerry 448,503 vs. Bush 221,600 (+226,903);
2008: Obama 458,422 vs. McCain 199,880 (+258,542) (69-30)
Franklin (Columbus):
2004: Kerry 285,801 vs. Bush 237,253 (+48,548);
2008: Obama 334,709 vs. McCain 218,486 (+116,223) (59-40)
Hamilton (Cincinnati):
2004: Bush 222,616 vs. Kerry 199,679 (+22,937); Bush 52.5 – 47
2008: Obama 225,213 vs. McCain 195,530 (+29,683) Obama 52-47
Lucas (Toledo):
2004 Kerry 132,715 vs. Bush 87,160 (+45,555);
2008: Obama 142,852 vs. McCain 73,706 (+69,146) (65-34)
Wood County, Ohio (Bowling Green):
One miss since 1964 (in 1976).
Obama 32,956 vs. McCain 28,819 (52-46)
Tuscarawas County, Ohio (New Philadelphia):
Has voted for the winning candidate since 1972.
Obama 20,957 vs. McCain 19,940, 50-48
8 p.m. Eastern
FLORIDA (entire state finishes voting at this hour)
Volusia County “In 2008, Mr. Obama carried Volusia by five percentage points. Both sides are girding for a closer battle this year.”
Pinellas County (major bellwether)
2004: Bush 49.6 – 49.5 2008: Obama 54 – 45
Population: 916,542 Largest city: St. Petersburg
Hillsborough County (major bellwether)
2004: Bush 53 – 46 2008: Obama 53 – 46
Population: 1,229,226 Largest city: Tampa
MAINE (Second Congressional District)
Piscataquis County (least populated, but lone McCain county of 2008)
McCain 51-47
4,785 to 4,430
Washington County (carried by Bush in 2004)
Obama 50-49
8,241 to 8,070
Penobscot County (Bangor)
Obama 52-46
42,975 to 37,523
MASSACHUSETTS
For those watching the Scott Brown-Martha Coakley race, Suffolk identified three bellwhether towns: Gardner, Fitchburg, and Peabody.
Back in January 2010, Scott Brown led all three by a wide margin.
MISSOURI
Jefferson County – for McCaskill/Akin race; winner of this county almost always wins statewide.
2006
Claire McCaskill 53, Jim Talent 47
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Hillsborough County (key bellwether)
2004: Bush 51 – 48 2008: Obama 51 – 48
Population: 400,721 Largest city: Manchester
PENNSYLVANIA
Chester County (key bellwether, western suburbs of Philly)
2004: Bush 52 – 47.5 2008: Obama 54 – 45
Population: 498,886 Largest city: West Chester
Bucks County (Philly Suburbs, north)
Obama 54-45
178,345 to 149,860
Delaware County (immediately southwest of Philly city)
Obama 60-38
170,949 to 109,766
Montgomery County (northwest of Philly)
Obama 60-39
249,493 to 163,030
Monroe County (Stroudsburg, fast-growing, north of Philly along NJ border)
Obama 58-41
36,655 to 25,892
Allegheny County (Pittsburgh)
Obama 57-42
368,453 to 269,819
Westmoreland County (Pittsburgh suburbs)
McCain 58-42
96,786 to 69,004
In all of the Philadelphia suburb counties, watch for drop-offs from 2008 because of casual voters being more focused upon Hurricane Sandy cleanup.
TEXAS
Believe it or not, Texas has a bellwether county: Bexar County, which includes San Antonio, has voted for the winning presidential candidate since 1972, and only one miss since 1928.
9 p.m. Eastern
COLORADO
Jefferson County (key bellwether)
2004: Bush 52 – 47 2008: Obama 54 – 45
Population: 534,543 Largest city: Lakewood
155,020 to 129,291
Arapahoe County (key bellwether)
2004: Bush 51 – 48 2008: Obama 56 – 43
Population: 572,003 Largest city: Aurora
128,366 to 100,409
Larimer County
Obama 54-44
84,461 to 68,932
Ouray County (small but useful)
Obama 53-45
1,629 to 1,360
Huerfano County (small but useful)
Obama 55-43
1,989 to 1,582
Alamosa County (small but useful)
Obama 56-42
3,521 to 2,635
MICHIGAN (Central Time Zone counties finish voting)
Macomb County (Detroit suburbs)
Obama 53-46
223,754 to 187,645
Oakland County (Detroit suburbs)
Obama 57-42
372,694 to 276,881
MINNESOTA
Anoka County (Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs)
McCain 50-48
91,357 to 86,977
NEW MEXICO
Hidalgo County (county seat: Lordsburg) has voted for the winner in every presidential race since 1928 (except 1968). Keep in mind this county is tiny (just 4,894 according to the 2010 census), and the Romney campaign hasn’t really made a push in this state.
Obama 50.9 percent to 48 percent
990 to 934
NEW YORK
Chautauqua County (county seat: Mayville; largest city: Jamestown) — perfect since 1980; two misses (1960 and 1976) since 1952. This county is the state’s southwestern corner.
Obama 49 percent to 49 percent
26,936 to 26,593
WISCONSIN
Brown County
Obama 54-45
67,241 to 55,827
Kenosha County (Ryan’s home county)
Obama 59-40
45,615 to 31,237
Racine County
Obama 53-46
53,405 to 45,941
Waukesha County
McCain 62-37
145,089 to 85,248
10 p.m. Eastern
IOWA
Scott County
Obama 57-42
48,675 to 36,239
Woodbury County BattlegroundWatch describes it “in the heart of Iowa’s red west, but unlike Pottawattamie to the south, it’s an outpost of urban Democrats.”
McCain 50-49
20,798 to 20,290
Warren County
Obama 50-49
12,261 to 12,112
NEVADA
Democrats run up almost all their statewide margin in just two counties – of course, they’re the two counties that include the cities of Reno and Las Vegas. To have a shot, Romney has to cut into their margins here (mostly focusing on the suburbs) and run up the score as much as he can in the sparsely populated rural counties everywhere else.
Clark County (Las Vegas)
Obama 58-40
379,204 to 256,401
Washoe County (Reno)
Obama 55-43
99,365 to 76,743