The Campaign Spot

Quinnipiac finds Hillary ahead in Ohio; Giuliani leads among Republicans

Quinnipiac polled Ohio voters.

Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a three-to-one lead over any Democrat and has a razor-thin lead over leading Republican presidential candidates in the key state of Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In general election matchups, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds:
Sen. Clinton squeaks by Arizona Sen. John McCain 46 – 42 percent;
Clinton inches by former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 46 – 43 percent;
Clinton tops former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 52 – 31 percent;
McCain edges Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 41 – 38 percent;
Former Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards edges McCain 44 – 41 percent.
Giuliani leads McCain 30 – 22 percent among Ohio Republicans.  Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 11 percent and Romney gets 4 percent.
Among Ohio Democrats, 38 percent pick Clinton, followed by 13 percent for Obama, 11 percent for Edwards and 6 percent for former Vice President Al Gore.
“Those who say Sen. Hillary Clinton can’t win the White House because she can’t win a key swing state like Ohio might rethink their assumption,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “While it’s a long way – 21 months – to Election Day, these numbers indicate that at this point she is very competitive in Ohio.”

To be honest, Mr. Brown, I’m a bit skeptical of any conclusions drawn from 3 or 4 point leads this far out. The only matchup with a statistically significant gap is the Hillary-Romney matchup, and Mitt has much lower name recognition. The nominees of both parties will have something approaching 100 percent name recognition by Election Day 2008.
In other news:

Among the top contenders, Sen. Clinton has by far the largest bloc of voters who don’t like her, with a 49 – 38 percent favorability.  By comparison, Obama’s favorability is 35 – 12 percent, but 52 percent say they don’t know enough to form an opinion.   Edwards gets a 46 – 24 percent favorability.


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