The Campaign Spot

Quinnipiac Puts Sestak Up by 1 Over Specter

Yet another poll showing a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary between Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak.

The Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary goes down to the wire with U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak taking 42 percent of likely primary voters to Sen. Arlen Specter’s 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted through Sunday night and released today. With 16 percent undecided and 25 percent of those who do back a candidate saying they might change their mind, the race is too close to call.

“The Sestak-Specter race is a dead heat and could go either way. Sen. Arlen Specter has the party organization behind him, which should help with turnout. But Congressman Joe Sestak could benefit from the relatively large group of undecided voters. Generally, incumbents don’t do all that well with undecideds, who are more likely to vote for the challenger or not vote,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Back on May 3, I predicted a Sestak win; the best-case scenario for Pat Toomey, I would posit, is a very narrow Specter win.

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