The Campaign Spot

Raising the Ceiling of the House Projections

Patrick Ruffini wants a new update on the overall outlook for the House.

I had a list of 99 back in May. A few races have been added since then (Bob Etheridge had not grabbed anyone by the neck back then), and the outlook has shifted a bit. You can see my May categorization here. I’ve scrapped the NFL-team comparison and just gone with a simpler explanation, while retaining that reassuring and memorable Department of Homeland Security 

color-coded chart theme.

BLUE: GOP Should Win

Marion Berry’s open seat in Arkansas, Vic Snyder’s open seat in Arkansas, Dennis Moore’s open seat in Kansas, Charlie Melancon’s open seat in Louisiana, Paul Hodes’s open seat in New Hampshire, Eric Massa’s open seat in New York, John Tanner’s open seat in Tennessee, Bart Gordon’s open seat in Tennessee, Betsy Markey in Colorado, Frank Kratovil in Maryland, Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire, Earl Pomeroy in North Dakota, Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania. (13)

GREEN: GOP Has Good Chance of Winning

Brad Ellsworth’s open seat in Indiana, Joe Sestak’s open seat in Pennsylvania, Dave Obey’s open seat in Wisconsin, Bobby Bright in Alabama, Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona, Allen Boyd in Florida, Alan Grayson in Florida, Suzanne Kosmas in Florida, Debbie Halvorson in Illinois, Phil Hare in Illinois, Baron Hill in Indiana, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Travis Childers in Mississippi, Dina Titus in Nevada, Harry Teague in New Mexico, Bob Etheridge in North Carolina, John Boccieri in Ohio, Zach Space in Ohio, Betty Sutton in Ohio, Mary Jo Kilroy in Ohio, Steve Driehaus in Ohio, Kathy Dahlkemper in Pennsylvania, John Spratt in South Carolina, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin in South Dakota, Glenn Nye in Virginia, Rick Boucher in Virginia, Tom Perriello in Virginia, Allan Mollohan in West Virginia. (28)

YELLOW: GOP Chances About 50-50

Bart Stupak’s open seat in Michigan, Brian Baird’s open seat in Washington, Gabby Giffords in Arizona, Harry Mitchell in Arizona, John Salazar in Colorado, Ron Klein in Florida, John Barrow in Georgia, Jim Marshall in Georgia, Walt Minnick in Idaho, Melissa Bean in Illinois, Bill Foster in Illinois, Leonard Boswell in Iowa, Ben Chandler in Kentucky, Mark Schauer in Michigan, Gary Peters in Michigan, Ike Skelton in Missouri, Shelley Berkeley in Nevada, John Adler in New Jersey, Martin Heinrich in New Mexico, Michael Arcuri in New York, Tim Bishop in New York, John Hall in New York, Bill Owens in New York, Mike McMahon in New York, Larry Kissell in North Carolina, Mike McIntyre in North Carolina, Heath Shuler in North Carolina, Charlie Wilson in Ohio, Jason Altmire in Pennsylvania, Chris Carney in Pennsylvania, Mark Critz in Pennsylvania, Patrick Murphy in Pennsylvania, Tim Holden in Pennsylvania, Lincoln Davis in Tennessee, Ciro Rodriguez in Texas, Steve Kagen in Wisconsin. (36)

ORANGE: GOP Should Win With Luck or Wave

Bill Delahunt’s open seat in Massachusetts, Mike Ross in Arkansas, Jim Costa in California, Loretta Sanchez in California, Jerry McNerney in California, Bob Filner in California, Ed Perlmutter in Colorado, Jim Himes in Connecticut, Chris Murphy in Connecticut, Sanford Bishop in Georgia, Bruce Braley in Iowa, Dave Loebsack in Iowa, Gene Taylor in Mississippi, Russ Carnahan in Missouri, Rush Holt in New Jersey, Dan Maffei in New York, Kurt Schrader in Oregon, Chet Edwards in Texas, Jim Matheson in Utah, Gerry Connolly in Virginia, Nick Rahall in West Virginia, Ron Kind in Wisconsin. (22)

RED: GOP Will Need a Wave and Some Luck

Patrick Kennedy’s open seat in Rhode Island, Stephen Lynch in Massachusetts, Betty McCollum in Minnesota, Frank Pallone in New Jersey, Dan Boren in Oklahoma, David Wu in Oregon. (6)

That adds up to 105 seats the Democrats have to defend. 

Not too long ago, I looked at the GOP’s vulnerable House seats:

I would have put Joseph Cao, that Republican representing that New Orleans district, on the extremely endangered list, but “Cao led state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) by a 51%-26% margin, according to a survey conducted May 27-June 2 by LA pollster Verne Kennedy.” That poll doesn’t guarantee Cao survives, but it suggests the race is not the slam dunk the DCCC thinks it is. Obviously, Hawaii’s Charles Djou won’t have an easy campaign, but observers aren’t putting his seat in even the top ten seats most likely to switch. In Illinois’s 10th district, Republican Bob Dold and Democrat Dan Seals are even in fundraising and a poll back in March put Seals up by only 3. It’s a similar story in the open-seat race in Florida, which is an R+5 district, by the way.

Holding Delaware’s lone House seat will indeed be tough for the GOP . . .

Ordinarily, you figure the GOP would lose most or at least some of their really vulnerable seats . . . but there’s an awfully strong undertow for Democrats right now. Maybe it mitigates by November, but right now there aren’t too many signs of that.

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